Crash Probability Dashboard
A low-churn market-plumbing monitor with continuous crash/fragility scoring, pillar decomposition, and confidence framing.
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Crash Risk (1-5d)
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Fragility Risk (1-3m)
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Liquidity Regime
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Confidence: â
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What this means
Normal = signals are quiet. Watch = at least one stress signal is elevated. Dislocation = a flow-driven event is likely (âĽK signals, with optional persistence).
Recent transitions
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Methodology (high level)
This page shows outcomes. The detector uses daily market data (e.g., SPY/HYG/GLD/VIX proxies) and checks for dislocation-style patterns: âbig down + whipsawâ, âvol spikeâ, âcredit stressâ, âeverything sells togetherâ, etc.
If you want implementation details, link out to the repo or keep the script on a separate /method pageâdonât put it on the dashboard.
Signals
Each card is one independent check. The detector triggers only when enough cards flip to âTriggeredâ.
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