Gold Risk Monitor

Outcome first: regime, drivers, and what changes next.

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Confidence —

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Action bias

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Stability

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3M Total Return

Primary regime horizon

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21D Flows

Holdings change percentile context

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Real Yield (1M)

Macro pressure proxy

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Top drivers

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What changes next?

Escalate

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De-escalate

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Pillars

Portfolio lens Balanced lens: watch whether extension cools before deterioration broadens.

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Signals

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Advanced diagnostics

Extension

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Metric	Value	Percentile
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Flow (short-term)

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Metric	Value	Percentile
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Macro (short-term)

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Rules

Horizon snapshot

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Horizon	Return	Return Percentile	Max Drawdown	Drawdown Percentile	Context
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Regime	Definition	Action bias	Escalation	De-escalation
GREEN	Typical conditions	Stay with base exposure	2 of 3 extension signals	Already baseline
BLUE	Extended rally without deterioration	Hold but watch for cracks	Any deterioration trigger	Clear extension signals
ORANGE	Extended + early deterioration	Reduce risk and monitor	Primary stress or 2/5 composite	Remove deterioration signals
RED	Breakdown-style stress	Defensive posture	Persistence confirms	Consecutive clear runs

Percentiles compare current values with historical distributions to provide context, not certainty. Data refreshes daily via GitHub Actions.